Michigan State
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
39  Alexis Wiersma SR 19:43
44  Rachele Schulist SR 19:45
135  Shelby Jackson SR 20:09
155  Holly Bullough FR 20:11
186  Erin McDonald SO 20:17
251  Karrigan Smith FR 20:26
278  Jeralyn Poe FR 20:31
309  Amber Way SO 20:35
368  Jenny Rogers SO 20:42
501  Allison Lunau JR 20:56
509  Annie Fuller FR 20:57
520  Nicole Kowalchick SO 20:58
532  Molly Jeakle SR 20:59
579  Aubrey Wilberding JR 21:03
621  Kennedy Beazley SO 21:06
808  Mackenzie Weiler FR 21:19
993  Sarah Rustmann SO 21:31
1,683  Lauren Jenkins SO 22:14
National Rank #11 of 344
Great Lakes Region Rank #2 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 97.5%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Nationals


National Champion 0.4%
Top 5 at Nationals 14.7%
Top 10 at Nationals 42.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 84.8%


Regional Champion 34.9%
Top 5 in Regional 98.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Alexis Wiersma Rachele Schulist Shelby Jackson Holly Bullough Erin McDonald Karrigan Smith Jeralyn Poe Amber Way Jenny Rogers Allison Lunau Annie Fuller
MSU Spartan Invitational 09/16 428 19:52 19:35 20:18 19:55 20:29 20:28 21:04 20:45
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 352 19:46 19:52 20:11 19:43 20:09 21:04 20:13 20:50
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 817 20:15 20:37 21:06 20:57
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 710 19:38 20:54 20:10 21:00 20:51 20:37
Big 10 Championship 10/30 365 19:33 19:42 20:05 20:41 20:23 19:59 20:37 20:34
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/11 411 19:56 19:30 20:01 20:15 20:46 20:18





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 97.5% 12.4 367 0.4 2.3 3.0 4.3 4.9 5.7 5.2 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 4.9 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.7 3.7 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.3 84 34.9 26.8 19.6 11.3 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alexis Wiersma 99.1% 45.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.2
Rachele Schulist 98.3% 49.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3
Shelby Jackson 97.5% 118.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Holly Bullough 97.5% 126.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Erin McDonald 97.5% 144.6
Karrigan Smith 97.5% 170.9
Jeralyn Poe 97.5% 184.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alexis Wiersma 6.2 0.3 2.6 11.2 12.2 11.5 11.0 8.4 6.0 7.2 5.9 4.4 3.2 3.4 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1
Rachele Schulist 7.0 0.1 1.5 8.2 11.4 10.2 10.1 9.0 8.5 6.3 5.5 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.6 1.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.3
Shelby Jackson 19.6 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.7 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.6 3.7 4.5 4.7 4.6 3.9 5.4 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.7 3.0
Holly Bullough 21.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 1.4 3.1 3.1 2.8 4.1 3.4 3.4 4.5 4.2 3.5 3.6 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.4
Erin McDonald 25.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.5 3.0 1.9 3.4 2.3 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.0
Karrigan Smith 33.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5
Jeralyn Poe 38.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 34.9% 100.0% 34.9 34.9 1
2 26.8% 100.0% 26.8 26.8 2
3 19.6% 98.5% 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.4 1.8 2.6 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 19.3 3
4 11.3% 96.9% 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 10.9 4
5 6.1% 86.8% 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 5.3 5
6 1.3% 32.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.4 6
7 0.2% 0.2 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 97.5% 34.9 26.8 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.0 3.6 4.5 4.9 4.7 4.4 3.2 2.3 1.3 0.9 2.5 61.7 35.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Penn State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 98.8% 1.0 1.0
San Francisco 89.3% 1.0 0.9
Miss State 82.8% 1.0 0.8
Boise State 60.0% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
Minnesota 31.9% 1.0 0.3
Furman 25.1% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 22.0% 1.0 0.2
Wisconsin 14.5% 1.0 0.1
Vanderbilt 6.1% 1.0 0.1
Ohio State 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 3.4% 1.0 0.0
Duke 3.2% 1.0 0.0
Syracuse 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Total 6.0
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 10.0